跨境细颗粒物（PM_2.5）污染已成为中国、韩国和日本从民间、学术界到政界的一个重要环境话题，因此最近有大量文献关注这三个国家之间的细颗粒物源-汇关系（source–receptor relationship）以确定各方分别贡献了多少污染。然而，现有文献往往只从生产的角度探讨PM_2.5源-汇关系，而没有从消费的角度研究源-汇关系。全面了解中日韩之间跨境细颗粒物污染的源-汇关系以及相关的健康效应，对于达成共识和解决潜在冲突至关重要。因此本研究采用了一个由多区域投入产出模型、GEOS-Chem大气化学传输模型、人口暴露模型和暴露-响应模型组成的综合分析框架，使用两个核算视角（生产和消费）和三个指标（细颗粒物浓度、细颗粒物人口暴露量和细颗粒物相关过早死亡人数）量化了2015年和2017年中日韩跨境细颗粒物污染及其健康效应的源-汇关系。研究发现，当采用不同的衡量指标和核算视角时，中日韩跨境细颗粒物污染浓度和相关健康效应的相互贡献差别很大。从生产的角度来看，中国对韩国和日本细颗粒物浓度的贡献是较显著的，而韩国和日本对中国细颗粒物浓度的贡献是可忽略的。然而，从生产和消费的角度来看，韩国和日本对中国细颗粒物浓度人口暴露量和过早死亡人数的贡献都是不可忽略的。从消费角度来看，2015 年韩国和日本对中国细颗粒物污染相关过早死亡人数的贡献分别为 6.96 [95% 置信区间 (CI)：6.36, 7.56] 和 9.79 (95% CI：8.93, 10.64) 千人，2017 年分别为 5.03 (95% CI：4.55, 5.49) 和 7.75 (95% CI：7.02, 8.47)。这些数字大于中国对韩国和日本细颗粒物污染相关过早死亡的贡献：2015年分别为4.63（95% CI：3.97，5.28）和3.91（95% CI：2.78，5.01）千人，2017年分别为4.43（95% CI：3.75，5.1）和3.69（95% CI：2.57，4.79）千人。

Transboundary PM_2.5 pollution has become an increasingly significant environmental issue in China, South Korea, and Japan. In this paper, we quantify the extent to which transboundary PM_2.5 pollution and associated health impacts are mutual among the three countries in 2015 and 2017 using three metrics (population-weighted mean PM_2.5 concentration, PM_2.5 population exposure, and PM_2.5-related premature deaths) and two accounting perspectives (production and consumption). We adopt an integrated interdisciplinary analysis framework that links a multi-regional input-output model, a GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, a population exposure model, and an exposure-response model. We find that, from a production perspective, China’s contributions to population-weighted mean PM_2.5 concentrations in South Korea and Japan are significant, while the contributions of South Korea and Japan to China are insignificant. However, the contributions from South Korea and Japan to PM_2.5 population exposure and associated premature deaths in China are nonnegligible from both production and consumption perspectives. From a consumption perspective, the contributions of South Korea and Japan to PM_2.5-related premature deaths in China amount to 6.96 [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.36, 7.56] and 9.79 (95% CI: 8.93, 10.64) thousand deaths in 2015, respectively, and 5.03 (95% CI: 4.55, 5.49) and 7.75 (95% CI: 7.02, 8.47) in 2017, respectively. These figures are larger than China’s contributions to PM_2.5-related premature deaths in South Korea and Japan, which measure 4.63 (95% CI: 3.97, 5.28) and 3.91 (95% CI: 2.78, 5.01) thousand deaths in 2015, respectively, and 4.43 (95% CI: 3.75, 5.1) and 3.69 (95% CI: 2.57, 4.79) in 2017, respectively. Our findings show that mutual contributions of PM_2.5 pollution and associated health impacts among the three countries vary considerably when different metrics and accounting perspectives are applied. A consumption perspective reveals narrower gaps in mutual contributions than a production perspective. Our findings could help policy makers, scholars, and the general public in China, South Korea, and Japan understand the intricacies involved in assigning environmental responsibilities and achieving environmental justice with respect to transboundary PM_2.5 pollution.
 

跨境细颗粒物,人口暴露,过早死亡,大气污染跨境输送,东北亚