[口头报告]The interdecadal weakening of the relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and summer precipitation in Central Asia

The interdecadal weakening of the relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and summer precipitation in Central Asia
编号:1930 稿件编号:1179 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2024-04-11 20:55:29 浏览:430次 口头报告

报告开始:2024年05月19日 14:30 (Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:10min

所在会议:[S12] 主题12、大气物理与气象气候 » [S12-8] 主题12、大气物理与气象气候 专题12.10(19日下午,224)

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摘要
The close relationship between the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) and summer precipitation in Central Asia (CA) has been documented in several studies. Nonetheless, this relationship has weakened since the 1990s and varies with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) phase transition. During the P1 period (1970-1998), when the AMO was in negative phase, positive IOBM events were associated with an overall warm SST anomaly in the Indian Ocean. At this time, the weakened thermal difference between the tropical Indian Ocean and the Indian continent, due to the warmer Indian Ocean, weakened the South Asian Summer Monsoon. This resulted in less water vapor being transported to northern India, leading to reduced precipitation and diminished release of latent heat of condensation, ultimately weakening the atmospheric heat source in the region. According to the thermodynamic adaptation equilibrium theory, cyclonic anomalies emerged over CA as a whole, the north-south position of the SWJ exhibited significant interannual variability, and the SWJ moves northward when AMO was in negative phase in an interdecadal context. This ultimately led to increased precipitation across the entire CA. While in P2 period (1999-2019), when AMO was in a positive phase, positive IOBM events were associated only with warm SST anomalies in the northern Indian Ocean, resulting in that the weakened thermal difference between the tropical Indian Ocean and the northern Indian continent was smaller than that in P1. This decrease led to reduced precipitation and latent heat of condensation release in the eastern part of the North Indian continent. According to the thermal adaptation equilibrium theory, there was a weaker cyclone anomaly over southern CA, and the SWJ exhibited weaker north-south movement on an interannual timescale. Along with the southward SWJ corresponding to the positive phase of the AMO during P2, it eventually led to increased but weaker precipitation in southern CA. This remarkable contrast in the impact of IOBM during different phases of the AMO offers intriguing possibilities for improving climate prediction in CA.
关键字
Summer precipitation,Central Asia,IOBM,AMO
报告人
魏韵
副教授 中国地质大学(武汉)

稿件作者
魏韵 中国地质大学(武汉)
于海鹏 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
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