[口头报告]Potential intensification of hourly precipitation extremes in Western Canada: A comprehensive understanding of precipitation-temperature scaling

Potential intensification of hourly precipitation extremes in Western Canada: A comprehensive understanding of precipitation-temperature scaling
编号:1926 稿件编号:170 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2024-04-19 15:07:37 浏览:401次 口头报告

报告开始:2024年05月19日 13:30 (Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:10min

所在会议:[S12] 主题12、大气物理与气象气候 » [S12-8] 主题12、大气物理与气象气候 专题12.10(19日下午,224)

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摘要
The convection-permitting climate model (CPCM), WRF-ARW at 4 km resolution, is able to capture the observed
relationships between precipitation extremes and temperature (PT scaling) in western Canada. By analyzing the
CPCM simulated PT scalings, we found they have robust patterns at different percentiles of precipitation intensity
and even between the current and future climate. This is due to the stable annual cycle of the regional climate.
The PT scaling pattern is physically governed by the amount of water vapour and the ascending velocity of air.
Approximately 95% of the precipitation intensity variation can be explained by the vertical velocity and precipitable
water in western Canada. The PT scaling for the current climate does not tell how precipitation extremes
would response to a warmer climate. Trend scaling theory was utilized to estimate the intensification of
precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. It shows that, in western Canada, the coast is particularly vulnerable
to precipitation extremes under global warming. Precipitation extremes are projected to increase at a super
Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scale over the coast, approximately at a CC scale over the prairies and mountains, and a
sub-CC scale over the northern region. The warming effect on precipitation extremes is even stronger when the
concept of  "wet-day trend scaling” is introduced.
关键字
Extreme precipitation,The Clausius-Clapeyron relation,PT scaling,Global warming
报告人
李林涛
副教授 青海理工大学

稿件作者
李林涛 青海理工大学
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