Global ecosystem services have significantly declined, urgently necessitating effective environmental governance policies. The economic zone of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, as a crucial economic belt and ecological functional area in northwestern China, has experienced severe ecological degradation in recent years due to human activities and climate change. However, little information has been devoted to the understanding of ecosystem services, trade-offs, and drivers in the economic zone of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.In our study, we propose a comprehensive and versatile method to quantitatively demonstrate the trade-off synergy intensity between paired ecosystem services and explore their spatial heterogeneity with natural and socio-economic driving factors by integrating InVEST and multiscale geographic-weighted regression (MGWR)，focusing on the economic zone of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.The results showed: (1) Carbon storage, habitat quality, and water yield  were -0.5%, -11.73%, and 1.21% from 2000 to 2020, respectively. (2)The interplay between trade-offs and synergies within ecosystem services exhibits temporal variations.Specifically, from 2000 to 2020, the dominant relationship was synergy, while from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020, the dominant relationship was trade-off. (3)The main influencing factors of trade-off relationships among ecosystem services also differ across different time periods. While the trade-off relationships were primarily influenced by the proportion of forest area and temperature from 2000 to 2010, the main influencing factors shifted to the proportion of built-up land area, precipitation, and temperature from 2010 to 2020. By providing a comprehensive view of the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of ecosystem service relationships and their impact on balance mechanisms, this study lays the groundwork for multi-objective optimization management of ecosystem services and the realization of regional sustainable development management.
 

ecosystem services; production possibility frontier(PPF); trade-off strength; multi-scale geographic weighted regression(MGWR)