The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM_2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions between environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM_2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM_2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings and meeting SDG3.9 will be a great challenge worldwide because of the overwhelming effect of population aging. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, is still shy of achieving a substantial (20%) reduction by 2030. Achieving the moderate SDG3.9 target was also a challenge at the national scale. More than two-thirds of the world’s nations (107/154) did not meet the moderate target by 2030 under any scenario, mainly located in the Global South inadequately. Rather, additional advances in air pollution control and healthcare are now indispensable for achieving a substantial reduction in DAPP. Comprehensive policies that team air pollution control and public health with climate change mitigation efforts, technological innovation, and energy system overhaul could help meet SDG3.9 and other related SDGs.
 

PM2.5,health burden,SDG,Scenario analysis,climate change