[口头报告]Forecast Skills and Predictability Source of the Marine Heatwaves in the NUIST-CFS1.0 Hindcasts

Forecast Skills and Predictability Source of the Marine Heatwaves in the NUIST-CFS1.0 Hindcasts
编号：1182 稿件编号：464 访问权限：仅限参会人 更新：2024-04-11 12:25:34 浏览：9次 口头报告

报告开始：2024年05月20日 11:29 （Asia/Shanghai）

报告时间：13min

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摘要
Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System (NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period of 1983-2020, this study investigates the forecast skills of the marine heatwaves (MHWs) over the globe and the predictability source of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) remains high at the lead time of 1-24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. This forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific (NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at the lead time up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window (less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP. Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonal dependent. Higher skill for the TIO and TAO appears in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for the MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.
关键字
Marine heatwaves,NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts,forecast skill,predictability source,ENSO
报告人
马静
副教授 南京信息工程大学

稿件作者
马静 南京信息工程大学
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