[特邀报告]Equatorial western-central Pacific SST responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation-ENSO sequence

Equatorial western-central Pacific SST responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation-ENSO sequence
编号:1172 稿件编号:764 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2024-04-11 12:24:12 浏览:338次 特邀报告

报告开始:2024年05月20日 08:00 (Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:16min

所在会议:[S12] 主题12、大气物理与气象气候 » [S12-10] 主题12、大气物理与气象气候 专题12.7(20日上午,4F国际会议厅)

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摘要
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, is well known to affect the extratropical climate via atmospheric teleconnections. Extratropical atmospheric variability may in turn influence the occurrence of ENSO events. The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), as the secondary dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, has been recognized as a potential precursor for ENSO development. This study demonstrates that the pre-existing winter NPO signal is primarily excited by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial western-central Pacific. During ENSO years with a preceding winter NPO signal, which accounts for approximately 60% of ENSO events observed in 1979-2021, significant SST anomalies emerge in the equatorial western-central Pacific in the preceding autumn and winter. The concurrent presence of local convection anomalies can act as a catalyst for NPO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies. In contrast, during other ENSO years, significant SST anomalies are not observed in the equatorial western-central Pacific during the preceding winter, and correspondingly, the NPO signal is absent. Ensemble simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observed SST anomalies in the tropical western-central Pacific can well reproduce the interannual variability of observed NPO. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the observed NPO-ENSO relationship is that the preceding winter NPO is a companion to ENSO development, driven by the precursory SST signal in the equatorial western-central Pacific. Our results suggest that the lagged relationship between ENSO and the NPO involves a tropical-extratropical two-way coupling rather than a purely stochastic forcing of the extratropical atmosphere on ENSO.

 
关键字
ENSO,NPO,air-sea-ice interactions
报告人
张文君
教授 南京信息工程大学

稿件作者
胡苏琼 南京信息工程大学
张文君 南京信息工程大学
姜枫 南京信息工程大学
渡部雅浩 University of Tokyo
金飞飞 University of Hawaii at Manoa *
陈汉卿 南京信息工程大学
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